It's halftime for Dirk Nowitzki.
Not for a game or the season, but for his career.
So much has happened since a stringy-haired 19-year-old plopped into the Mavericks' lap in the 1998 draft, courtesy of the Milwaukee Bucks, who were infatuated with a fat tire named Tractor Traylor.
Since then, we've watched the big kid grow up. At 28, Nowitzki has been in the league 8 ½ seasons, and it's fair to guess that this is the midpoint of an already outrageous NBA career. Players rarely excel beyond their mid-30s.
Just what could his career be if this really is only the halfway mark?
Forget MVP honors, for which he is a top candidate this season. Think bigger.
Today in Las Vegas, Nowitzki will make his sixth straight All-Star Game appearance. What if he has another eight or nine seasons in him? For the next few years, there's no reason to expect him to tail off from the mind-boggling numbers he has posted the last few seasons.
Naturally, at the end of his career, you expect a lesser role. But his first couple of years weren't exactly Hall of Fame stuff.
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So, if you take what Nowitzki has done so far and double it, what kind of career are we talking about?
"He's going to be a Hall of Fame player," says Detroit coach Flip Saunders, who saw Nowitzki's career jostle, parallel and eventually surpass Kevin Garnett's when Saunders was coaching Minnesota. "And I think he'll go down in history as probably the best-shooting 7-foot forward that's ever played. When you say that, I think it's a pretty good ranking."
Naturally, opinions will rely heavily on how much jewelry he accumulates.
"People always measure you by that and, whether that's right or wrong, it'll be part of the measurement for sure," says San Antonio coach Gregg Popovich. "He's definitely a Hall of Famer. He'll definitely be one of the best forwards to ever play the position because he has not only established himself as one of the top players in the league, but he's improved."
Such titles as best European, or even best foreign player – heretofore reserved for Hakeem Olajuwon – might be Nowitzki's already, or could be before long. But it will be the rings – or lack thereof – that will determine whether he can be ranked among the all-time great big men.
"Winning championships helps. But first of all, if he stopped right now, he's a great player," says Mavs coach Avery Johnson, whose team owns the NBA's best record at 44-9. "With him maturing and the way he's leading and adding [to his game] and the way his team has gotten better, he's going to be even greater."
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Sizing him up
The interesting thing is that outsiders still think of him as a 7-foot shooter. Admittedly, that's an asset that sets him apart. But he's no longer simply a shooter. And that's what irks the big fellow from Würzburg, Germany.
"Obviously, that's a great honor if they say that about my shooting," Nowitzki says. "I put in a lot of work growing up. I shot 500 jumpers a day.
"But obviously, I don't want to be remembered just as a shooter. I took my game from just a spot-up shooter over the years to a little more all-around game. And hopefully it's enough to bring a championship to this organization."
That will be the ultimate gauge for Nowitzki, whose ability is now unquestioned around the league. Coaches always include him among the players for whom they have to adjust defenses. That's the ultimate compliment for a player.
Popovich talked about how Nowitzki has improved, going from a player who couldn't get a rebound when he came into the league to one of the best defensive board men around. And he can get an offensive rebound now, too.
"First of all, nobody can guard the guy," the Spurs coach says. "And not only does he rebound, he knows where the most important rebounds are. In Games 3 and 4 last year at their place [in the second round of the playoffs], we've got the game in hand and he goes and gets offensive rebounds in both games that turned the fortunes of both those games around."
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Silencing critics
Not everybody has always been on Nowitzki's bandwagon. Analysts like TNT's Charles Barkley took delight in pointing out Nowitzki's deficiencies in past years – being too soft and refusing to play defense.
However, since reaching the NBA Finals last year, Nowitzki has won over the harshest of critics, including the TNT crew.
AP
Mavericks forward Dirk Nowitzki is averaging 25.2 points and 9.4 rebounds per game this season.
"Straight to the Hall of Fame," says Steve Kerr, who was in Houston on Thursday to offer analysis of the Mavericks' win over Houston. "He's at his peak right now, and you got to figure that he will be for the next four or five years. I think he's probably the most difficult player in the NBA to guard.
"I was laughing all last year. We did so many of the Maverick games and we'd finish the game and Marv [Albert, his broadcast partner] and I would be sitting there saying, boy, these guys are good. We go to the studio and the first thing Charles would say is they can't win a championship. They don't play any defense and Dirk doesn't do this or that.
"We would just shake our head and wonder if Charles ever watches any games."
Utah coach Jerry Sloan had the best power forward in NBA history, Karl Malone, for virtually his whole career. Malone's skills were based on hard work and strength.
Nowitzki is different, yet has earned Sloan's respect.
"He's worked himself into being a great player," Sloan says. "The sky's the limit for him because he is so big and long and he can dribble the ball. I don't know that I've ever seen a guy that big ever play this game like he does."
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Scoring his shooting
And while Nowitzki doesn't want to be known as a shooter, he's on pace to make more than 1,800 3-pointers, which would put him among the top five all-time in that category. No other 7-footers are even close. So, like it or not, he will go down as the best 7-foot shooter in league history.
Or the best "that could play, anyway," says longtime coach and General Manager Doug Moe. "There's probably some 7-foot shooters who could shoot as good, but they couldn't play dead."
Moe believes Nowitzki has the chance to end up right below the greatest names in NBA history – names like Larry Bird, Magic Johnson and Michael Jordan. "He wins games. He hits key shots. He's just terrific," he said. "But I don't know if you put him in that top class."
The numbers say that if the second half of Nowitzki's career is like the first, he'll be in that category.
Not that the numbers are ruling his life these days.
"Now, winning championships is all I really play for," he says. "All-Star Games, early in your career, that's great. But now, it's about taking your team to a championship. I still feel like I got six or seven good years left in me.
"There are a lot of great players that never made it to the top but still had great careers. But every time anybody talks about them, it's always, 'He was a great player, but ... .' And obviously, I would like to keep that 'but' out of that sentence, if I could."
If Nowitzki is halfway through his career, here's where he would rank on the list of all-time leaders.
Points
1. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, 38,387
2. Karl Malone, 36,928
3. Michael Jordan, 32,292
4. Wilt Chamberlain, 31,419
Dirk Nowitzki, 29,140
5. Moses Malone, 27,409
6. Elvin Hayes, 27,313
7. Hakeem Olajuwon, 26,946
8. Oscar Robertson, 26,710
9. Dominique Wilkins, 26,668
10. John Havlicek, 26,395
3-pointers made
1. Reggie Miller, 2,560
2. Ray Allen, 1,879
Dirk Nowitzki, 1,838
3. Dale Ellis, 1,719
4. Glen Rice, 1,559
5. Tim Hardaway, 1,542
6. Nick Van Exel, 1,528
7. Eddie Jones, 1,461
8. Dan Majerle, 1,369
9. Mitch Richmond, 1,326
10. Allan Houston, 1,305
Minutes played
1. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, 57,446
2. Karl Malone, 54,852
3. Elvin Hayes, 50,000
Dirk Nowitzki, 47,920
4. Wilt Chamberlain, 47,859
5. Bill Russell, 47,764
6. Reggie Miller, 47,619
7. Gary Payton, 46,664
8. John Havliecek, 46,471
9. Robert Parish, 45,704
10. Hakeem Olajuwon, 44,222
† PKO †
